Hungry? The Benefits Of Famine According To Central Planners
Link:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-07-28/hungry-benefits-famine-according-central-planners
BY CAPITALIST EXPLOITS
THURSDAY, JUL 28, 2022 - 12:53
HUNGRY?
Good, according to the central planners.
The folks over at the UN stopped destroying the world for a brief few minutes to publish a piece (snapshot below) justifying their behavior and explaining the “benefits” of the famine they’ve engineered. I am not making this up.
The article remained on the UN website for a day or so before being deleted after it went viral on social media, with people horrified at the truly unbelievable evil.
The good thing about this is that as they continue with their predictive programming and NLP (seriously, look into both and it promises to blow your mind), more and more people wake from their trance.
Once woken, they realize the incredible danger they are all in. And that is a good thing because you can’t fight an enemy until you understand one exists.
And on the ground in the everyday world, the repercussions are now spilling over into the lives of Joe Sixpack.
Joe doesn’t really care to hear about the United Nations “sustainability agenda” or about their “absolute zero” report. Which details (very clearly) and precisely what is taking place right now.
None of this is an accident. Contrary to what many think was or is incompetence is neither.
The “great reset” requires a populace beholden to the government and nobody else. As the central planners pursue their agenda of getting there, this is bound to be fraught with an awakening and a lot of angst.
And so, while Joe Sixpack doesn’t understand most any of this, he doesn’t actually need to.
What Joe does care about is when he can’t afford groceries and when his electricity bill now suddenly wipes out his entire annual disposable income.
And that is enough to provide both pushback and an increasing ability to awaken to the horrors of what comes for him if this communist agenda masquerading as a plan to “save us from climate change” is NOT stopped in its tracks.
And with this realization will come politicians — many who themselves are parasites but doing what comes naturally to them: sensing a shift in the winds and rushing to get in front of it, champion it, and gain support.
Here, take a look. According to
France24, Giuseppe Conte, the head of Five Star, said:
I have a strong fear that September will be a time when many families will face the terrible choice of paying their electricity bills or buying food. We are absolutely willing to dialogue, to make our constructive contribution to the government, to Draghi, (but) we are not willing to write a blank cheque.
He’s not wrong, of course, but this is a thug who went gleefully along with all the covid bullshit, which itself is a massive contributor to the problems our proverbial “Joe” now faces.
Take a gander at this.
And as we’ve been saying until we’re blue in the face: energy underpins EVERYTHING. Which is why Eurozone CPI looks like it just mainlined viagra.
And this is saying something because as you know the way they measure CPI is, of course, complete hogwash and roughly half the real rate. You can check out John Williams’ Shadowstats, where inflation in the US is calculated based on the methodology used back in the 80’s (pre-fraud). It just hit 17.3%. That’s a tad more than the 9.1% print they just tried to bullshit you with.
The other thing “Joe” cares about is when the government — under the guise of “saving the planet” — begins the process of stealing up to 50% of the farms in the Netherlands.
Speaking of the land of the tall people…
Beef herd should be culled to help meet emissions targets
Under a ridiculous narrative of “reducing nitrogen emissions,” the Dutch government is proceeding with a blatant land grab of 30% of the Farmland. It is worth pointing out that air is 78% nitrogen.
These fukwits have literally decided that air is dangerous.
Anyway, the farmers are having none of it and have blockaded roads, airports, and distribution centers. The fishermen have joined in and blocked the ports.
Domestically, the Dutch farmers have massive support. Gratefully, people seem to intuitively understand that without them there will be no food. The propaganda is no longer having the desired effect on the populace. What a shame!
Most bought into the Covid fraud, but they’re clearly NOT buying into this “climate change” agenda.
The pushback cannot come from the current clutch of political parties. This is true whether they are on the right or the left. It doesn’t matter. Both are compromised and neither stood up for citizens in the Covid fraud, nor are they even now when it should be obvious to all but the incredibly dim that the entire fiasco of Covid was a complete and utter sham, designed only to implement a new feudal system where the technocrats own everything.
Every day a few more people wake to reality, and once you wake, you can’t unsee what you’ve seen. The existing political parties’ credibility is severely damaged. I’ve thought for some years now that if there is to be a shift, it will likely come from third parties. This is true across the Western world, and not uniquely a Dutch thing.
The Farmer–Citizen Movement in the Netherlands is now gaining momentum and size faster than any other.
Over in France, the Marxist agenda gathers momentum, too.
France plans full nationalisation of power utility EDF
France will fully nationalise EDF (EDF.PA), Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said on Wednesday, in a move that would give the government more control over a restructuring of the debt-laden group while contending with a European energy crisis.
It is at this point that we should review a little history.
The last head of a European government to be killed and eaten by a mob was Dutch Johan de Witt in 1672, who was mutilated, hung, and had his liver roasted and digested by Orangists in the Hague.
The last head of a European government to be killed and eaten by a mob was Dutch Johan de Witt in 1672, who was mutilated, hung, and had his liver roasted and digested by Orangists in the Hague.
Davos man deserves at least as much.
In the meantime, Europeans are going to be cold and hungry. Winter is just a few short months away now. The stampede will begin in earnest for food and all those banned products like fertilizer.
Our fertilizer positions have had a powerful pullback from their rising from the ashes. Remember, we started buying these back in 2018. Mosaic is a good proxy for the sector.
Here’s the longer-term chart:
Here’s a good question to ask yourself: is the food crisis over or just getting started?
Now, consider it’s currently on a forward P/E of 4.3 and ROE of 24%. With a market cap of $15.8 billion, Mosaic is one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers.
Located in Tampa, Florida, the company is now the world’s leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash nutrients.
In 2021, they generated 40% of sales from phosphates, 21% from potash, and 41% from their business in Brazil, Mosaic Fertilizantes.
These guys produce 12% of the world’s phosphate supply as well as 12% of global potash production.
Here’s something else. Potash is mainly produced in Canada. The problem with Canada, other than shoveling the roof before it caves in, was highlighted by Joe Rogan recently:
They’re Fu**ed’: ‘Canada Is Communist’ Now, Being Led By A ‘Fu**ing Dictator.
Florida has its own problems to be sure.
Bugs, and people so heavy that they need mobility scooters to do their shopping, and did I say bugs? But on the other hand, it is probably the most pro-freedom, pro-capitalist state in the US and it is attracting capital and freedom-loving individuals like bees to honey.
I don’t normally spend this much time on a singular company, so please don’t take this the wrong way.
We buy sectors. But, as you’d know, sectors are made up of multiple companies operating in them.
In the instance of this sector, Mosaic is indicative of the sector, and it’s stupidly cheap.
For starters, it’s important to understand that the entire agriculture sector is tightly correlated with energy prices.
This is without geopolitical tensions, of which we have a plethora — all adding to food insecurity.
To make matters worse, people with mental illnesses have been put in charge of… well, everything. Here’s America’s representatives at the French Ambassador’s residence last week.
Nuff said, heh? Now to be clear, I don’t care if you’re gender confused, self identify as a teapot, and like putting on a frock, even though you’re got testicles, but these are not behaviours that are consistent with a mentally healthy individual. To suggest otherwise is simply stupid.
But back to MOS. The world has these problems due to the aforementioned idiocy, and it is companies like MOS who are going to benefit massively from this. MOS is the world’s leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash nutrients.
Last year, they generated 40% of their sales from phosphates, 21% from potash, and 41% from Mosaic Fertilizantes, their Brazilian business.
As of today, they produce 12% of the world’s phosphate supply as well as 12% of global potash production. Not too shabby! Let’s hope they don’t have a mysterious fire break out at any of their facilities, heh.
In any event, they are way too cheap here.
When reading through company filings we find that they’ve been boosting earnings based on lower output. At first I thought this was odd until I found that this is common in the industry.
In 1Q22, total potash sales were 1.8 million tons, down from 2.0 million tons. Yet pricing rose by more than 150%, providing the company with $651 million in adjusted segment EBITDA — up from $212 million in 1Q21. If you’re wondering, that was due to those supply constraints and a higher price for the underlying product sold.
In phosphates, the same happened. Sales were at 1.7 million tons, down from 2.1 million tons. Yet pricing rose from $426 per ton DAP to $785 per ton, providing the company with a surge of $361 million in segment (adjusted) EBITDA to $632 million.
As for their Brazilian operation Mosaic Fertilizantes adjusted EBITDA more than doubled from $104 million to $233 million during this period.
What I want to point out here — and it’s true not only for the fertiliser industry — is that as these guys have sold LESS, they made MORE. This highlights the stagflation concept we began warning about back in 2018.
This year, MOS is expected to do more than $7.7 billion in EBITDA with free cash flow reaching $3.7 billion. That’s an implied free cash flow yield of 23.4%. It allows the company to erase all of its net debt by the end of next year.
If we incorporate the company’s $15.8 billion market cap, $550 million in expected net cash, $153 million in minority interest, and $130 million in pension-related liabilities, we get an enterprise value of $15.5 billion. That’s roughly 2.7x next year’s expected EBITDA.
Way too cheap! It isn’t going to stay that way.
How Our Fund Is Frontrunning The Economic Madness In 2022 And Beyond
- Copper - Copper prices have to rise to address a huge supply deficit looming on the horizon.
- Shipping - Shipping is vital for the functioning of the modern world, yet is priced for bankruptcy.
- Eastern Europe - Position for the long term trend of capital moving from the West to the East with Polish and Russian equities markets.
- US Dollar - We’re bearish all paper currencies, but believe that the USD will outperform all others.
- Base Metals - Clean energy targets require more battery metals than existing global supply.
- Off Shore Oil & Gas - Offshore oil investment has been smashed, yet consumption continues to grow.
- Rare Earth Metals - A play on geopolitics and a cycle that should see a repricing of these commodities.
- Uranium - The looming supply deficit promises to pay handsomely when the market inevitably reprices.
- Gold - Gold sees the perfect storm; the turn of a cycle, supply issues, and lack of faith in sovereign currency.
- Coal - Modern society is dependent on coal, with supply continually growing. Is there a more hated investment?
- Personal Defense - Order is breaking down in the US, and the unrest is giving us an opportunity to position for asymmetry.
- Agriculture - Lockdowns and monetary stimulus have ensured food prices will rise, providing deep value.
- Natural Gas - Supply and demand dynamics coupled with dependency from the US provides a great opportunity.
- Plus much much more...
